Geopolitics, Fertiliser Trade and the Transition to Regenerative Food Systems

For years, discussions around regenerative agriculture, agroecology and circular food systems were largely framed as environmental issues. Concerns about soil health, biodiversity loss, emissions and pollution shaped much of the debate.

But something important is changing.

Recent disruptions to global fertiliser markets — first following the Russia–Ukraine war, and now amid the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz — are increasingly reframing food systems through the lens of resilience, economic security and geopolitical risk.

Conventional industrial agriculture remains deeply dependent on globally traded synthetic fertilisers, many of which are closely tied to fossil fuels and concentrated trade routes. Any serious disruption to flows of natural gas, ammonia or fertiliser-related trade can quickly affect fertiliser prices, food production costs, farmer profitability and ultimately food security itself.

What is becoming clearer is that highly centralised and input-intensive food systems are structurally fragile as well as degenerative of the environment.

The emerging discussion is not about replacing all synthetic fertilisers overnight or attempting a sudden transition to fully organic agriculture. Sri Lanka’s 2021 fertiliser crisis remains an important warning. The country’s rapid and poorly sequenced attempt to ban synthetic fertilisers contributed to severe disruption in agricultural production, rising food prices and broader economic stress.

The deeper issue exposed by recent crises is dependency itself: dependency on imported fertilisers, fossil-fuel-intensive production systems and increasingly vulnerable global supply chains.

As a result, a growing number of researchers, policymakers, farming organisations, food businesses, banks, financial institutions and agricultural networks are now exploring pathways towards lower-input agriculture, regenerative farming, circular nutrient systems, biological inputs and more localised food economies. Increasingly, these discussions are being framed not only as environmental strategies, but also as resilience strategies.

This is creating renewed interest in circular economy approaches within food systems, particularly those aimed at reducing waste, reducing chemical dependence, shortening supply chains and strengthening regional nutrient and resource cycles.

A more circular approach would involve more than simply improving waste management and composting systems. While these are important, many circular economy initiatives still focus too narrowly on downstream waste. Addressing deeper risks within food systems also requires investment in shorter and more resilient supply chains, local and regional procurement networks, soil health, nutrient recovery, regenerative farming practices and stronger connections between food production, consumption and regional economies. Digital technologies can also play an important role by improving traceability, procurement transparency and coordination across regional food systems.

These shifts are not only environmental in nature. In a world increasingly shaped by geopolitical instability, volatile energy markets and climate-related disruption, they may also become important strategies for strengthening economic resilience and food security.

Commercial kitchens are rarely discussed in geopolitical debates around food systems, yet restaurants, cafés, hotels, schools, care homes and institutional kitchens sit at a critical point within the wider food economy. They influence procurement patterns, supplier incentives, packaging demand, waste generation and consumer awareness.

This is where initiatives such as Circular Kitchens become relevant.

Circular Kitchens is a UK-based social enterprise and certification initiative designed by UrbanEmerge to help commercial kitchens transition towards more ecological, circular and locally oriented practices through a practical multi-stage framework. The initiative encourages businesses to eliminate single-use plastics, minimise food waste, compost unavoidable waste, track the region of origin of food and increase local and ecological sourcing.

Individually, these actions may appear relatively small. Collectively, however, they point towards a wider systems transition: from highly linear and globally dependent food systems towards more distributed, transparent and resilient hyperlocal, national and regional economies.

Importantly, this kind of transition does not require ideological purity or abrupt disruption. It can emerge gradually through procurement choices, supplier relationships, waste systems and customer demand, one kitchen at a time.

What is particularly striking today is the growing convergence between circular economy thinking, regenerative agriculture, resilience planning, industrial strategy and geopolitical risk management. Institutions such as the University of Cambridge’s Global Food System initiative, the FAO and Chatham House are increasingly examining how food-system resilience relates to energy dependency, fertiliser vulnerability, climate shocks and trade disruptions. This is good news for the transition towards more regenerative and resilient food systems, as these approaches are increasingly being recognised not only as environmental priorities, but also as strategies for economic resilience, food security and long-term stability.

This represents a significant shift in discourse. The question is no longer exclusively how to make food systems more sustainable, but also how to make them more resilient and less vulnerable to external shocks.

The transition cannot happen overnight, but it needs to start moving in the right direction. There are legitimate concerns around short-term transition yields, affordability, labour, scalability, financing and infrastructure, but recent geopolitical shocks are making one thing increasingly difficult to ignore: food systems designed around high external dependency also carry high systemic risk, and that may create new momentum for more localised, regenerative and resilient food systems.

In our next article, we explore the role financial institutions could play in supporting Sri Lanka’s transition towards regenerative and resilient food systems.